Country music may survive A.G.; (after Garth)
Saturday, November 11, 2000
Kevin C. Johnson. Post-Dispatch

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Good vibes ran through the Kiel Center last month as country music fans poured in to the sold-out concert by the rising superstars Dixie Chicks. But an undercurrent of disappointment hung in the air for some, and it had nothing to do with the fun, super-charged Dixie Chicks performance.



The day before the Oct. 27 concert, music titan Garth Brooks, country music's biggest artist and the best-selling solo artist of all time, held a press conference confirming speculation he's hanging up his big black cowboy hat, calling it quits after his next CD.



This could have huge ramifications for an industry that needs his musical contributions. Of course, it also begs the question of what happens next and who will replace him. (Shania Twain, anyone?)



Tulsa, Okla., native Brooks, son of singer Colleen Carroll (who died last year), was never a great singer, something he was the first to acknowledge. But Brooks easily carries a note without the help of a bucket. He also gets over with his genuine likability and personable nature, and fans relate to the songs he co-writes. His music was perhaps the catalyst for the current debate in country music circles surrounding contemporary vs. traditional sounds, mixing the two to spectacular effect. And his electric concerts dazzled fans not used to seeing such a razzle-dazzle spectacular in the country arena. Twain obviously took notes from him in several departments.



"I can't believe it. I don't want to believe it," Marsha Riggs of Alton said at the Dixie Chicks concert. Her friend Linda Madden of St. Louis assured her, "He'll be back. And when he does, he'll be bigger than ever."



But judging from Brooks' own words, a return is unlikely. "I'm very glad that I accomplished my goal for this year, which was to step back from business and take time working on my family relationships and thinking about my future. What I've decided is that I need to be home with my kids," Brooks said at his recent press conference. (Brooks officially filed for divorce from his wife, Sandy, last week, after being separated since March.)



"What (I) planned to do was release something at the end of this year to tell the people 'thank you.' Then, when the Time-Warner/EMI merger was being discussed, all those plans were put on hold. Now, I think the time is right for me to go on with that project, then wrap things up from a music standpoint at the end of 2001," Brooks added.



Brooks says he won't tour again, but he's expected to release his next Capitol Records CD in conjunction with either Mother's Day or Father's Day 2001, and it'll be his last. Brooks' independent publicist Karen Byrd says, though, "We don't want it to be couched as a farewell album."



He hasn't started recording, she says, but it will be a country record. He's looking for music now and has let songwriters know he's in the market for new material. "He's listening to tons and tons of songs for the album," Byrd says. He's also set to reissue six out-of-print albums on Nov. 21, with each record containing a new track. He also produced the new CD from country singer Ty England, also out Nov. 21. And he's considering writing screenplays.



During his unprecedented run, Brooks almost single-handedly rejuvenated the country music industry, becoming an industry in himself while raising the bar on how many records a country music act could sell. Brooks created a niche out of appealing not only to country fans but also to fringe country fans. Pop and rock fans also got pulled into the mix by Brooks' blend of contemporary country with his own rock-pop influences, which were especially clear in concert.



Brooks came onto the scene with his 1989 self-titled record, which included Brooks' standards like "If Tomorrow Never Comes," "Much Too Young (To Feel This Damn Old)" and "The Dance." The album went on to sell 9 million copies, signaling the music industry that there was a new player in the game and he wasn't some bumpkin to be taken lightly. That debut CD was followed by a string of multiplatinum releases, most notably 1990's "No Fences" (16 million) and 1991's "Ropin' the Wind" (14 million).



Still, Brooks was hardly invincible -- as evidenced by his most recent CD, 1999's "Garth Brooks in . . . the Life of Chris Gaines," in which Brooks took on the role of a fictional rocker. The record failed to yield a major hit, created confusion among fans and was ignored by country music radio although it sold a respectable 2 million.



Though no one will miss Gaines, Brooks is another story. Byrd recognizes that when her client vacates the scene after next year's CD, it could affect the industry because "when he releases an album, people are drawn to the stores not only to buy his album, but albums by other artists."



And the country music industry needs fans in stores in a big way. Revenue from country music sales is on the downswing, according to data from the Recording Industry Association of America. The recording industry grossed $14.5 billion last year, 10.8 percent of which belonged to country music sales. That's the smallest chunk out of the total pie since 1990, when it was 9.6 percent. The peak came in 1993, when country music accounted for 18.7 percent of sales. From 1996 through 1998, country music dropped to just over 14 percent of music sales.



"You've seen that over the past few years when Garth hasn't had a release out, country sales kind of decline," says Brian Mansfield, senior editor-country for online music store CDNOW and national country music correspondent for USA Today. "That happens when you take the top-selling artist in the genre out of the equation, even though his albums haven't been hitting the peaks they once were. They're still several million albums off the top from the days when you could count on a country album from him every fall."



Mansfield says the bottom isn't exactly falling out of the market, but "it has been a weak market the last few years, and a lot of that, I suspect, you could contribute directly to Garth's not having music out and his not pushing the kinds of numbers he used to."



Country music's touring industry had reason to celebrate with Brooks' last tour a few years ago. It grossed $105 million, making it country music's only $100 million-grossing tour. Without him, country touring suffers overall.



"Again, that's a big chunk off the top, though I don't think it will affect everybody else, the individual artists. Shania Twain will do fine if she gets another album and tours again," says Russ Schell, program director at local country music station WIL-FM (92.3).



Schell is among those who don't believe the industry is in any real trouble. "I don't see Garth's departure as being anything that's going to have any negative, long-term impact," says Schell. "I want to say this delicately . . . I don't think he will be missed."



One reason he may believe this: His station plays tons of Brooks music and will continue to do so, making it seem as if Brooks never left. His retirement means only that WIL won't be getting the handful of new songs they're used to getting each year.



Schell looks to names like Tim McGraw, George Strait and Alan Jackson as somewhat filling the void left by Brooks, though "in terms of a solo artist taking his place, I'm not sure anybody can. He created such a phenomenon. But there's a whole new crop of superstars on the way. Music evolves, and I guess what we're seeing is the beginning of another evolution. Garth had a good 11-year-run and made more money than he'll ever know what to do with. Bless him for stepping aside."



Mansfield looks to Twain to take over, saying she's proven capable of reaching Brooks-level heights. And the fact is, Twain has country music's top-selling CD in "Come On Over" with its 17 million copies sold, which trounced the 16 million copies sold of Brooks' "No Fences."



Strait continues to put up phenomenal numbers with no end in sight. He's packing stadiums, leading Mansfield to speculate that Strait could succeed Brooks. There's also the Dixie Chicks, who sold 10 million copies of "Wide Open Spaces." Mansfield says that it "wouldn't be out of the question for 'Wide Open Spaces' to reach the level of 'No Fences.' "



Jayne Lacy, a co-promotions coordinator at the Collinsville club Wild Country, doesn't think Brooks' retirement "will stop country music from moving forward. He hasn't put anything out in a while except for that 'Chris Gaines,' and that didn't work so well for him. But there's so much new talent coming up, and there always is. So it (the industry) will continue to grow."



Lacy adds she's hearing more upbeat country today, danceable music reminiscent of early Brooks' recordings, which is a good sign. "It seemed like people were only putting out ballads, depressing songs that drove audiences away," Lacy says.



Lisa Shively owns the Nashville-based music public relations firm the Press Network. She says her business does better when country industry does well with big names like Brooks. The smaller acts she works for - Jason Ringenberg, Jim Lauderdale and Rhonda Vincent - get better positioned, gaining support slots on tours. She isn't worried about the future of the industry.



Besides, she suspects Brooks won't be so quiet. "I can't believe he's sitting at home waiting for the kids to come home."

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So neither you nor anyone you know owns a single Garth Brooks CD, and you don't understand his title as the most successful solo artist of all time, at 100 million records sold? It's true. Do the math.



"Garth Brooks" - 1989 (9 million copies sold)



"No Fences" - 1990 (16 million)



"Ropin' the Wind" - 1991 (14 million)



"The Chase" - 1992 (8 million)



"Beyond the Season" - 1992 (3 million)



"In Pieces" - 1993 - (8 million)



"The Hits" - 1994 (10 million)



The Garth Brooks Collection" - 1994 (3 million)



"Fresh Horses" - 1995 (6 million)



"Sevens" - 1997 (7 million)



"Double Live" - 1998 (13 million)



"Garth Brooks in ...the Life fo Chris Gaines - 1999 (2 million)



"Garth Brooks & the Magic of Christmas" - 1999 (1 million)



********Other names in country who could keep the fire burning:George Strait, Dixie Chicks, Alan Jackson, Shania Twain, Tim McGraw