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Thread: First week number Guesses?

  1. #1

    First week number Guesses?

    I know numbers shouldnt matter, but with Garth, it always seems to be part of the focus of it all.

    So what are ya guesses for first week numbers?

    He has the November 11th date basically to himself, so he should open at number one on Billboard top 200, even though One direction is releasing their album the following Monday, so Garth has a six day head start for the
    sales week.

    For the first time, as we know Garth is on a digital media platform, Ghost Tunes, but he anit with Itunes.

    He is at all retail,but he has no social media platform apart from his webpage.

    His tour has been breaking records, so he still has a fanbase.

    With all of this, I dont think his first week numbers will be a flop, but I also dont think, he can do some crazy type
    number, like sell a million for its first week.

    My prediction is, it will sell around 500 thousand its first week, and open at Number One on the Billboard
    top 200 charts.
    Last edited by Brett Dale; 09-30-2014 at 07:24 PM.

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    I agree, 500 to 600 thousand. Though I'd love to see another million plus week for him!

  3. #3
    I'm going to low-ball it and guess 300,000. Should still be enough to secure a #1, but I don't think the GhostTunes sales are going to be significant.

    It's really too early to guess. It'll be easier to judge when we see the album promotion start and where PLP is on the charts in November.

  4. #4
    On the surface I'd probably agree with the 300-400,000 number. However, sales may be much more then we expect. I think it will depend on how they count the pre-sales. I am assuming that all of those sales will be counted as first day sales. So in reality the album has already been on sale for a few weeks. I also know that a lot of you all will be like me and still go to the store and get a physical copy on the 1st day.

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    The presells will help a lot, however, with the bundle including the new album presale, if they go by average price of album, it would not cost enough to get counted, only the new cd only presales and actual sales would count... I don't know how they will count the bundle though :?

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    People keep saying he has the week all to himself, but that's not necessarily true. Pink Floyd's surprise new album comes out that day, as well new material from Queen and the Foo Fighters. None of those are country, of course, but a large portion of Garth's historic sales came from those who generally don't buy country music, so I feel it's fair to count them as competition. He'll also be competing heavily with Taylor Swift's new album, which comes out just 2 weeks prior as well.

    All in all, I think he'll have a great first week showing, but I'm so sure that he'll definitely debut at #1. My prediction is that he comes in at #2 behind Taylor Swift.

  7. #7
    HitsDailyDouble has him projected at 250,000 based upon industry estimates.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Emerald Isle View Post
    ...I'm so sure that he'll definitely debut at #1. My prediction is that he comes in at #2 behind Taylor Swift.
    *Meant to say, I'm NOT so sure he'll definitely debut at #1. Sigh.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Emerald Isle View Post
    People keep saying he has the week all to himself, but that's not necessarily true. Pink Floyd's surprise new album comes out that day, as well new material from Queen and the Foo Fighters. None of those are country, of course, but a large portion of Garth's historic sales came from those who generally don't buy country music, so I feel it's fair to count them as competition. He'll also be competing heavily with Taylor Swift's new album, which comes out just 2 weeks prior as well.

    All in all, I think he'll have a great first week showing, but I'm so sure that he'll definitely debut at #1. My prediction is that he comes in at #2 behind Taylor Swift.
    If swift albums comes out two weeks before, I think hes safe for number one, say Swift sells a million for her first week, that would probably drop to around 600 Thousand for
    her second week, in week 3 she will probably be around 300 thousand? I dont really think foo fighters/queen or pink floyd will be pushing around 500K for first week sales, but
    who knows.

    The only thing that might stop him reaching number one is ITUNES doing another beyonce with someone.

    But who knows??

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by CBooUF View Post
    HitsDailyDouble has him projected at 250,000 based upon industry estimates.
    wow, 250K, I think thats a bit low, I know albums dont sell as much now, perhaps people are underestimating Garth numbers, or maybe Im
    over estimating!

  11. #11
    I wonder how they'll count sales of the album included in the Bundle. He's already locked and loaded with tens of thousands of sales (I'm assuming at least this many) for two new albums spanning the next 12 months. Very, very smart.
    Matt
    "Life is not tried, it is merely survived if you're standing outside the fire"-GB

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Brett Dale View Post
    wow, 250K, I think thats a bit low, I know albums dont sell as much now, perhaps people are underestimating Garth numbers, or maybe Im
    over estimating!
    I don't think that's a low ball estimate at all. I don't even know if Billboard will count his Ghost tunes numbers.

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    TUH debuted at #37 I think, so there are still buying fans out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Sevens View Post
    It's really too early to guess. It'll be easier to judge when we see the album promotion start and where PLP is on the charts in November.
    The exact reason I'm not guessing It's too early to guess, to judge.. What all stats are there for PLP so far? are there any results/sales/#'s for the bundle? for ghost tunes sales? for sales at his site? any wide (or close) ranging #'s of units in stores?

    Personaly? I've seen TUH on sale at Target, (on sale too while being sold) for $13.99 . That was IT.. nothing more- no advertising, no promotion, nada. I admit, I'm not one who's gone around from store to store or inspecting, etc.. but do we really know?

    no.. as Sevens said above- it's too early to guess..

    some ideas of Def #1.... may be overstating Garth's impact... we don't know for certain, and there is a certain element of realizing how much Garth may have hurt himself by being away for a decade + (back off retirement apologists, I'm not talking about reasons WHY he was gone.. the absence itself... that's the focus).. He may NOT be as able to conquer the world as he once was...

    some may have underestimated Garth's ability to make an impact... He may very well be able to command quite the sales figure.. he certainly can command the attention of the media..

    point is, it's too early- enjoy the GArth- but don't overanalyze

    (stepping off soapbox)
    An objective Garth fan, with my own views...

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    The re-release version of it, that is. It actually was #27, with a total of 9,000 sold, which I say is pretty impressive for it!

    http://www.billboard.com/articles/co...turns-to-chart

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    Quote Originally Posted by YouSoundBitter View Post
    The re-release version of it, that is. It actually was #27, with a total of 9,000 sold, which I say is pretty impressive for it!

    http://www.billboard.com/articles/co...turns-to-chart
    I agree! Especially considering that the collection has been out 7 years AND was included in the BIAOMR set, I'd say 9000 copies of the new release with no promotion and/or fanfare is pretty impressive.

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    With tour and hopefully some TV time, I am sticking to 500k or more:-)

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    Billboard estimated between 100,000 and 300,000. I am hoping for much better. It will be interesting to see how much clout he has after the break. TUH stayed around 41/42 this week. I am more curious how 25th Anniversary edition of Double Live did? I am guessing with some new songs and DVD it should get some buyers. I couldn't find it at Wally World but did see 2 copies of TUH and one BIAOMR set. As soon as they release the numbers from digital sales, it will be interesting to see how he jumps on Soundscan/RIAA rankings. Has anyone mentioned if he is selling copies of CDs at shows? Did he sell any in Vegas with the show there? I don't know how many people are buying digital bundle. I have been buying the new CDs with digital upgrade. Still like my music on CD and the ones I have purchased so far sound fantastic.

  19. #19
    I've called several places and can't find Double Live anywhere. I have seen TUH at each of those places. I don't think most stores are purchasing all of the reissues for sale.

  20. #20
    I went to all 7 shows in Atlanta and the only CD I saw them selling at the shows was TUH

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    Sales today isn't the same as it was in the 90s. Anything above 300 000 is a great first week, and that is in my book the same as a 700 000 week in 1996.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr_Sevens View Post
    I've called several places and can't find Double Live anywhere. I have seen TUH at each of those places. I don't think most stores are purchasing all of the reissues for sale.
    Mr_Sevens, I can help you out. Look for a private message from me

  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by swecow View Post
    Sales today isn't the same as it was in the 90s. Anything above 300 000 is a great first week, and that is in my book the same as a 700 000 week in 1996.....
    300,000 is a really solid debut. I'm afraid people will be disappointed if he doesn't pass that, but it's still a huge success and Garth and the label know that. They see the same estimates (and more) as we do.

  24. #24
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    I'm wondering if there will be people sorely disappointed and if some Garthpologists will try to explain away any type of debut that's NOT record breaking
    An objective Garth fan, with my own views...

    I have a purpose
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    My collection of all things Garth....
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    I don't think anyone is expecting record breaking. PLP is really burning up the charts and there are still a few tickets left for some shows. I think the fan base has certainly shrank a little since his last regular CD release.

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    BItter- I'm not nec. disagreeing TOTALLY with you..

    however.. dep. on the market I guess.. I havE YET to hear PLP on the radio here..

    since 1:17AM they have played ZERO Garth, and certainly not PLP... (on KYGO, denver's best station)

    nothing on Denver's other station of note either.

    Denver isn't a HUGE market but it's a big enough one to play Garth.. NOTHING...

    Burning up the charts I'll have to disagree with *unless it's just denver which is possible..*

    I agree- Fan Base has definitely shrunk- I've had multiple people tell me they've never heard of Garth Brooks (and I shudder when I hear that )
    An objective Garth fan, with my own views...

    I have a purpose
    Made in His image
    Accepted by Him
    Given new life in Christ
    Eternity with Him

    My collection of all things Garth....
    The GarthCast

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Skywise View Post
    BItter- I'm not nec. disagreeing TOTALLY with you..

    however.. dep. on the market I guess.. I havE YET to hear PLP on the radio here..

    since 1:17AM they have played ZERO Garth, and certainly not PLP... (on KYGO, denver's best station)

    nothing on Denver's other station of note either.

    Denver isn't a HUGE market but it's a big enough one to play Garth.. NOTHING...

    Burning up the charts I'll have to disagree with *unless it's just denver which is possible..*

    I agree- Fan Base has definitely shrunk- I've had multiple people tell me they've never heard of Garth Brooks (and I shudder when I hear that )
    PLP has been increasing airplay since day 1 and has an audience of just under 19 million, according to Mediabase.

    "Burning" up the charts isn't entirely a fair word to use, but it's certainly not fallen off yet and has maintained consistent (yet modest) growth. I imagine the label is saving some radio pushes for the couple of weeks leading up to the album release.

    I think it's a damn shame, but I don't see this single cracking the top 10. It's better than the majority of the country top 20 IMO, but it also doesn't fit in. Not enough drum beats and tailgates, I guess.

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    No rap or EDM tacking (insert sarcastic smilie here). Seriously if your country station is iHeart (formerly Clear Channel) you're nor going to hear anyone over 40 on it. Our secondary local plays PLP and Garth (and Alan and both Georges) regularly and have even mentioned keeping an ear out for him to come to town. The other 'big' station: crickets..
    "Grace is when God gives us what we don't deserve and mercy is when God doesn't give us what we do deserve" - Dan Roberts

  29. #29
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    I don't think we're clear channel here ..

    first garth brooks song played on our main station- played at 651pm.. That Summer..

    They've played the same Scotty McCreery song 4-5 times today though.. but no garth... other than what I just mentioned..

    They spatter alan Jackson, some george strait.. NOTHING by Garth except That summer.. PLP is nowhere to be found..
    An objective Garth fan, with my own views...

    I have a purpose
    Made in His image
    Accepted by Him
    Given new life in Christ
    Eternity with Him

    My collection of all things Garth....
    The GarthCast

  30. #30
    I think people are underestimating the power of Garth.

    Yes first week sales can be affected by a number of factors, eg: A major major news event that the media is focused on 24/7. Itunes releasing a major artist album without warning. The
    weather even, if a lot of places are snowing and storming, people arent going out.

    Those factors can be less sales than would normally happen. But under normal circumstances I would be shocked if Garth doesnt sell 400 thousand or more.

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